Eurovision: in preparation for Malmö 2013 (III)

Now I will talk about two neighbours not only geographically but also in terms of votes.

GREECE AND KOZA MOSTRA FEAT. AGATHONAS IAKOVIDIS

It's impossible to talk about Eurovision without to talk about one of the most successful countries. Since the introduction of the semi-finals, Greece always have qualified for the final and became in the TOP10. Well... until last year when Greece break its record and finished in the 17th place. But I think that this year Greece will return to the TOP10 and, who knows?, to the TOP5.
First of all, this year Greec showed to us that, despite having serious financial problems and with a tight budget, it's possible to do a great festival and present musics with a quality above the average.
This was the first year that the greek selection was made with an agreement with a private channel. And beside the goods songs in competition, the show had also the presence of great artists. Some previous winners of the Eurovision Song Contest - Elena Paparizou, Vicky Leandros, Dima Bilan, Ruslana, Alexander Rybak and Marija Serifovic - , and another famous singers including Eleftheria Eleftheriou (representative of Greece last year) and Ivi Adamou (representative of Cyprus, also laste year).
As for the songs in competition, for me the winner and the 2nd ranked songs were the best ones. I think that Greece understood that the europeans, especially the juries, are saturated of the greek POP, and presented only songs in a different music style than the usual.
Now talking about the winner. It's a very original and comic song, but unlike others that went to the festival in the past, this music is more energetic and less ridiculous, and easier to appeal to juries.
I can foresee another success among the public who may be accompanied by juries.


CYPRUS AND DESPINA OLYMPIOU

The Cyprus's last year song was a great sucess between the OGAE's and the bookmakers. But in the contest was below the desired. I think that there was to much optimism around the Ivi Adamou's song. This year, this Mediterranean island did a different selection process.
Before the final annoucement by the cypriote there were rumours around many artists names to represent Cyprus. Finally, on 1st February, the CyBC revelead that Despina Olympiou was the chosen and in 14th February was revelead the song: a ballad called "An Me Thimase". It's an interesting greek ballad. Despina has a good voice and it's obvious that she has many experience. But, this song certainly won't do much furor among the public. It's a ballad very simple and without anything that can appeal to the audience. There isn't any high moment in the song.
Cyprus doesn't usually have much success in this competition, and this year will not have in the same semifinal its great partner in votes: Greece.
Among the countries that tend to give more points to Cyprus will vote in the same semifinal where it will compete only the United Kingdom. 
The fate of Cyprus depends on how juries will classify its music, because from the public the prospects are not encouraging at all.


Good luck to both countries!!!

Eurovision: in preparation for Malmö 2013 (II)

Finally I can start to comment the songs that have been chosen for the Eurovision Song Contest 2013 that will be held in Malmö!!!
Let's start!

GERMANY AND CASCADA

I'm gonna start with one of the Big 5, that won the contest in 2010 and remained in the TOP10 also in 2011 (10th place) and 2012 (8th place). After the choices of "Satellite", "Taken by a Stranger" and "Standing Still", I wasn't expecting this choice from Germany. We are facing a song that fits perfectly in "Schlager" style very characteristic of this part of Europe. This music has all the cliches, associated to this kind of music.
From the festival, I have to say that the quality in general was above the average. But I have to admit that I was expecting a stronger competition. I didn't like the performance of the major part of the finalists. And I never expected that the song "Nackert" came in 2nd place (with 12 points of the radio) and the song "One Love" in 3rd place.
Beside the winner, I like the song "Elevated".
There aren't many things to talk about the German choice. It will be difficult to put some originality in the performance. This song will appeal more to the public than to juries. And that will certainly make a splash among OGAE's. The worst thing that could happen to Germany would be finish in the last position in the final because as I said, Germany is one of the Big5 countries, so it has a guaranted place in the final.

AUSTRIA AND NATALIA KELLY

Now I will talk about another german-speak country. After the bad result of last year (this country finished in the last place in the semi-final 1), this year Austria brings a much better song. It's original and with some charm, but I think that it miss something in this music. Although Natalia get a good pitch and vocal tract, I think it was not enough to convey the full potential of the music.
As for the competition, I have to say that this year the Austrian Final had a good musical quality in general. And the 2nd place - the song "Feels Like Home" performed by the artist Yela - and the 3rd place - the song "Rise Above the Night" performed by the artist Falco Luneau - were also good choices. I must say that I preferred Falco Luneau, but the choice of Natalia wasn't bad at all.
For the semifinal, Natalia must improve her stage presence and give more charisma to the music.
Austria doesn't usually have much luck in this competition: is almost always more benefited by juries than by the public who put it almost always among one of the last places.
Austria will perform in the semifinal 1, and from the countries that usually give more points to Austria will vote in the same final The United Kingdom, Belgium and Ireland. Some of the countries that in the past gave more points to Austria, Germany and Greece, won't vote in the semifinal 1.
The hope for Austria will be in the side of the juries.


Good luck to both countries!

Chair of S. Peter: who will succeed to Benedict XVI?

Todos os cardeais são candidatos ao lugar de Bento XVI como novo Pastor da Igreja Católica, e todos partem em pé de igualdade.
Mas claro que existem alguns que possuem maior favoritismo e sobre os quais recaem a maioria das apostas. São 10 os cardeais com maior favoritismo, num misto de nacionalidades, personalidades e visão da Igreja e do Mundo.
Antes de participar na nossa votação, pode ficar a conhecer um pouco de cada um dos cardeais.


All Cardinals are candidates for the post of Benedict XVI as the new Shepherd of the Catholic Church, and all run on the same footing.
But of course there are some who have greater favoritism and about which fall most bets. There are 10 Cardinals with more favoritism, a mix of nationalities, personalities and vision of the Church and the World.
Before participating in our poll, you can get to know a little of each of these cardinals.

Cardinal MARC OUELLET

Cardinal FRANCIS ARINZE

Cardinal ANGELO SCOLA

Cardinal PETER TURKSON

Cardinal ODILO PEDRO SHERER

Cardinal ÓSCAR ANDRÉS RODRÍGUEZ MARADIAGA

Cardinal Christoph Schönborn

Cardinal GIANFRANCO RAVASI

Cardinal LUIS ANTONIO TAGLE

Cardinal JORGE MARIO BERGOGLIO

The global world: from present to future.

The world today is facing another change in the balance of world relations. Whenever this happened in the past, the world has suffered periods of great crisis and conflict.
Currently Humanity already has mechanisms to prevent such disasters. However, more than ever, competition for resources (scarce) and for world domination was so intense.
The current crisis in the West, is the result of its own internal problems, but also the result of changing the geo-strategic balance.
The evidence that the West is losing the weight that held until very recently, are all too evident:
- the economic growth rates are now in null or negative values;
- the growth of emerging economies (particularly BRIC) outshines any growth of the Western powers;
- western countries have gone from the largest exporters in the world, to a state of complete dependence on imports from the rest of the world;

Of course this is a result of the elimination of trade barriers coming elapsing since the 90s. The integration of the various areas of the world in international trade and improvement of means of communication and transportation, enabled the emerging countries, especially those in Asia, could place their products on the international market at unbeatable prices.
Emerging countries have factors that force companies to leave the West and relocate to these regions: high productivity, very low wages, obedient labor work and without rights or claims. The growing wealth of China and the oil producing countries allowed them to finance the developed countries, thus taking a commanding position in the global economic order.
Thanks to this growing wealth and the illusions created by the financial agencies, the world experienced a false sense of prosperity, the current crisis has proved to be a mere illusion.
Europe is struggling against a severe sovereign debt crisis, with the existence of the euro questioned. But in the U.S. the problem is not minor, with the state unable to control the debt. This has forced the country to review its foreign policy, especially with regard to military presences in Iraq and Afghanistan.

As for Brazil, this is finally able to take the role in the world of its size and its resources have long demanded: it is currently the fifth world power. However it should be noted that Brazil has benefited from rising prices of raw materials and agricultural products. When they start to fall, industry and services do not yet have the capacity to continue with this growth.

Russia remains a facade of democracy, truly ruled by Putin and by his elite. The economy has been largely benefited from the rising price of oil and natural gas.
It is clear that Russia tries desperately to recover the prestige of the Soviet era. However, it lacks human, material and natural resources enough to do so.
However, since Russia does not feel that his pride is being attacked (as happened in 2008 with Georgia), the most likely scenario is that its not constitutes a focus of concern in the world-system.


The focus of most concern is even further orient: China. For the first time in its history, China is fully integrated into international trade. In fact, the weight of 1.3 millions of inhabitants in the world economy, is truly enormous. The balance of power is now leanned to the side in favor of China.
Western countries are losing power, income and welfare to all this.

This scenario could easily implode in a conflict - economic, political or even military -.
However, the way China's self-government, is creating inconsistencies that may have harmful consequences soon. China remains a communist regime, which has tried to eliminate any manifestation, but became a capitalist economy. Therefore, China will face a recession sooner or later, which will make the people suffer more than the capitalists, contrary to the most elementary principle of the communist system. China and most Asian countries are benefiting greatly from globalization and trade liberalization: the populations are increasing their well-being.
However, this carries a heavy cost for Western countries because resources are finite and scarce.
Despite being a more equitable distribution, the truth is that whom it hurts, never reacts well to the situation.
The Western world has already protested against the opening of world markets to Chinese products. Of course, if it goes ahead, the reaction of China may not be very peacefully.

A emergência do Sudeste Asiático

Como já referi em algumas mensagens anteriores, a nas últimas décadas a Ásia tem se tornado novamente um dos centros de decisão e produção mais importantes do Sistema-Mundo. Por este mesmo motivo, farei aqui uma pequena análise sobre o processo de tem devolvido à região da Ásia-Pacífico o prestígio e a hegemonia de outros tempos.

Apesar da heterogeneidade étnica, cultural, linguística, religiosa e política da Ásia, e de todos os conflitos a isso associados, a Ásia é desde inícios da década de 90 do século XX, o pólo de maior crescimento económico do mundo. Os principais contribuidores foram as regiões da Ásia Oriental e do Sul, nomeadamente a China e a Índia.

A Ásia é um continente grande em diversos aspectos, e com enormes diferenças a nível económico e social: coexistem no mesmo continente países com o Japão (no topo do grupo de países mais desenvolvidos do mundo), a China (entre os países emergentes com maior crescimento económico) e outros que possuem a maioria da população ainda abaixo do limiar da pobreza.
A nível demográfico, a Ásia apresenta um enorme potencial pois apresenta em média uma elevada taxa de crescimento da população, o que significa uma contínua entrada de muita população activa no mercado de trabalho, e um aumento da poupança.

O comboio asiático está a andar a toda a velocidade.

A generalidade destes países adoptou uma estratégia de industrialização para promoção de exportações, com recurso ao IDE e às receitas das exportações. Em alguns países, o mercado interno já está muito maduro, o que tem atraído cada vez mais empresas estrangeiras. O interesse que todo o mundo parece ter pela Ásia deve-se ao seu rápido e elevado crescimento económico: quem detiver o domínio sobre a Ásia, deterá o poder sobre a economia global. A crescente globalização tem levado a uma maior interdependência  económica entre os países do Sudeste Asiático, reflectida no aumento de fluxos comerciais entre eles (de bens, serviços, capital e conhecimento).
Esta maior internacionalização do investimento e da produção, constitui um novo desafio para a Ásia pois, o futuro deixará de passar pela afirmação de cada país individualmente, e passará pela afirmação da região como um todo. A liberalização do mercado e a abertura ao comércio internacional têm levado à criação de economias de escala, e requerem que os governos dos vários países de uma região unam esforços para uma melhor aplicação dos recursos, um aumento da produtividade e a uma aceleração tecnológica nos países em desenvolvimento.
Esta maior interacção será um factor que permitirá que os países mais desenvolvidos da região, possam "puxar" pelo desenvolvimento dos países mais subdesenvolvidos.
Tudo isto, são factores que têm justificado a criação de movimentos regionais de integração económica, a que a Ásia não é excepção.

The endemic disease: the portuguese economic problems

Let's now talk about the third country of PIIGS to request financial help.
Unlike its "partners" in the PIIGS, the portuguese economic boom associated to the accession to the euro area fade quickly. In fact, in that time Portugal reached one of the highest GDP annual growth.
This was the result of a demand boom caused by a big decrease in interest rates and consequent expansionary fiscal policy.
But this wasn't followed by an increase in the supply. Because of that, the loss on international competitiveness quickly led Portugal to a sharp in economic growth.
Despite Portugal is beeing able to control its budget deficit and public debt better than Greece, the truth is that Portugal has troubling issues that make it bery vulnerable to any problem in the economic environment, such as:
- poor long-term growth prospects;
- drastic loss of competitiveness;
- high public and private indebtedness;

• Pre and euro adoption: from big increase to big decrease

The decrease in the interest rates caused by the pre-euro adoption, led to a consumption boom in the following years.
The private saving decreased but in other hand, the investment and gross fixed capital formation increased a lot.
The convergence for the German economy has increased considerably.
However, this situation was accompanied by a duplication in the household and non-financial sector debt.
Also the current account deficit increase from near-zero in 1995 to 9.0 percent in 2000.
All this scenario occured in a short period of time, between the early 90s and the beginning on the XXI century.
And what was the government reaction?
Despite the increase in the tax revenues, the fiscal policy was pro-cyclical. Adding to the expansionary conditions, the primary balance deteriorated.

With the euro adoption, the consequences were dramatic. Te household spending was in high levels of debt and the prospects were to deterioration of the situation, the investment and consumption boom came to an end, together with the decrease in the house investment as a percentage of GDP.

• The causes of the stagnation:

When Portugal adopted the euro, its export structure was almost concentrated (and nowadays remains almost equal) in traditional slow.growing sectors in which the emerging economies in Asia was now the comparative advantage.
The problems remained during all the first decade of the 20th century: excessive concentration in the low-tech industries, weak business climate and inflexible labour market.
All these facts led to a deterioration of competitiveness, causing the end of the Euro boom.
In this period, the wages per capita rose twice as fast as the Euro average.
The consequence of this excessive wage growth was the appreciation of the real effective exchange (REER), when in Spain and Ireland, for example, remained almost unchanged.
This big increase in REER had a good consequence - the favoring of domestic demand over exports - but also bad consequences - the build-up of macroeconomic balance and consequently the deterioration of the current account deficit and the decrease of the FDI inflows.
After the mid-90s, the FDI inflows fell below the Euro area's average average, because the century became less attractive for investment. In the same period the productivity suffered a sharply fall, being below the EU average in all the economic sectors.
The low productivity is partly explained by the low human capital formation and limited use of information technology (Portugal has one of the lowest labor force participation in tertiary education and spending on R&D as a percentage of GDP).
And of couse, its governance and business climate indicators are today among the lowest in the euro area.

Today the endibtness is one of the biggest barriers to good performance of the Portuguese economy

 

• Policy: what could have been done?

The portuguese organs of political decision and making had many opportunities presented by the boom to move into an high-income economy, investing in higher value-added and faster growth sectors and a more outward-oriented production structure. But the country remained specialized in the production of hand-labour intensives goods and with low technology incorporated.
Also the government missed the opportunity to build a budgetary surplus, wich would have balanced the budgetary surplus, wich would have balanced the budget, moderated the domestic demand boom and the excessive concentration in non-tradable activities. Alongside this, should have been imposed a tax structure weighted toward discouraging consumption and investments in non-tradables.
Facing the currently debt crisis, the government plan to reduce the dificit from 9.4 percent of GDP in 2010 to below 3 percent of GDP in 2013 is based on:
- privatizations;
- raising taxes on high earners and capital gains;
- cutting civil servant wages;
- public investment spending;
But, the growth assumptions associated to the deficit reduction projections are overly optimistic, because the strong growth expecations are based on observed historically data but don't have into account the fiscal policy's potential deflationary effects.
Also the intention of raise taxes may fall far short of expectations because Portugal has one of the highest leakage of skilled labor in Europe.
This is a reasonable short-term solution because can help to dampen wage growth and reorient the economy toward exports but hardly can resolve the country's low productivity and slow growth.

• Solutions for the future:

Apart from this, the policy needs to concentrate efforts in these aspects:
- short-term: boosting competitiveness (especially through increased flexibility in labor markets) and increased competition in relatively sheltered backbone services.
- long-term: improving Portugal's human capital base (in order to improve the productivity and attract the foreign investors).

Eu penso... E AGORA?: 1st anniversary

E eis que chegamos ao primeiro aniversário deste blogue. Foi precisamente a 7 de Janeiro de 2012 que eu criei um blogue que "...não tem uma temática específica. Apenas serve para eu apresentar ao mundo, muitas vezes em jeito de desabafo, alguns dos muitos pensamentos que um cidadão deste mundo vai tendo..."

E de facto assim foi. É verdade que nos primeiros meses de existência foram mais variados os temas abordados do que posteriormente.
Os dois grandes temas que dominaram este blogue foram, a Eurovisão e a Economia (mais especificamente a crise económica).

Estas são as mensagens mais vistas desde a criação deste blogue:

Melodifestivalen 2012: The Winner Is... online vot... 10/03/2012
Eurovision: walking to Baku 2012! (XI) 29/03/2012
MADE IN CHINA (I) 21/04/2012
Eurovision: walking to Baku 2012! (V) 11/03/2012
Eurovision: walking do Baku 2012! (VI) 12/03/2012
Eurovision in Baku 2012! (I) 20/05/2012
Eurovisão: a caminho de Baku 2012! (I) 08/01/2012
SIMPSONS e a vida real I: Bart & Lisa Simpson 08/01/2012
The Euro and the problem of PIIGS (I) 03/05/2012
Eurovision: walking to Baku 2012! (X)

E precisamente quando o blogue atingiu o seu 1º aniversário, o número total de visualizações atingiu as 19000, concentradas maioritariamente nestes países:

Estados Unidos
Portugal
Brasil
Alemanha
Rússia
Reino Unido
Grécia
Itália
Espanha
Azerbaijão

Os temas mais procurados neste blogue, justificam a maioria dos países presentes neste TOP10 das nacionalidades que mais visitaram o meu blogue.

Quanto às palavras-chave mais inseridas nos motores de pesquisa e que deram acesso ao meu blogue, confirmam a predominância nos dois grandes temas deste blogue:

loreen euphoria cover
Loreen euphoria
euphoria loreen cover
russia eurovision 2012
tooji
loreen euphoria album cover
buranovskiye babushki
eurovision 2012 austria
can bonomo
danny montell

Muito mais se poderia ter falado neste blogue nestes 12 meses de existência mas, como já referi várias vezes em algumas mensagens, conciliar uma função sem remuneração financeira (mas muito gratificante acreditem) com a frequência de um Mestrado e agora a preparação para emigrar não são tarefas fáceis para uma pessoa só. A dificuldade em conciliar tantas coisas irá fazer com que eu deixe de postar tantas mensagens em português e depois as respectivas traduções me inglês, para postar apenas em inglês.
Resta-me agradecer a todos os que têm visitado o meu blogue e, como diz o velho ditado: "Ano Novo, Vida Nova", tenho apenas a dizer que espero inovar neste blogue, trazendo outros temas sempre que possível. E nunca parar de repetir para mim mesmo o parágrafo que escrevi no final da mensagem de abertura.

E antes de me despedir, escrevo uma máxima que tenho procurado nunca esquecer: "O conhecimento é o nosso maior tesouro: é algo nada nem ninguém nunca nos poderá tirar."