segunda-feira, 27 de janeiro de 2014

The Holocaust: a memory of the past and a lesson for the future

"If the international Jewish financiers outside Europe should succeed in plunging the nations once more into a world war, then the result will not be the bolshevisation of the earth, and thus the victory of Jewry, but the annihilation of the Jewish race in Europe"
(Adolf Hitler addressing the German Reichstag, 30 January 1939)


A child dying on the street in the Varsaw Gheto, during the Nazi regim
Today, 27th of January we celebrate the International Day of Remembrance of the Victims of the Holocaust, th day when the largest Nazi death camp, Auschwitz-Birkenau in Poland, was released by Soviet troops and the Holocaust period became officially to an end.
It was created in 1st of November of 2005 during the United Nations General Assembly resolution, in the celebration of the 40th anniversary of the end of the World War II. However, only this year I will leave a post about it, not because only this year I remember this big crime against the Human-Kind and the Human Civilization, but because last year in August I visited for the first time a concentration camp, the kz gedenkstaette Dachau, near to Munich, the first concentration camp.
And I need to say that, even with all the pictures, all the movies and all the stories, we can only realize what really was a concentration camp, when we visit one with our eyes, and we still feel the sadness, the despair and the hopeless that remains in these camps.
But, before talking about my experience, I will explain some things about the Holocaust.

Despite the years, the European continent has fresh the memory of this crime. Even the youngest generations (like myself) that were born many years after the end of the World War II know what the Holocaust was and have (at least) a vague idea of what it worked. And despite the non-involvement, it's known in all the continents, not being of course, a present memory like here in Europe.
But sometimes the people don't realize the extension of this phenomenon. The Holocaust wasn't only the building of some camps where the people were put to die or to kill instantly. There was a big structure behind, many people working just for it, a great long-term preparation and execution, and a whole system working.
In fact, it reflects the real idealism of the nazi regim. Because more than the Economic or Political Changes, the basic principle of the nazist regime was the the segregation and the xenophobia.

So, how did it started? The tortures against the jewish started far before the opening of the concentration camps, when the Nazi party and its leader, Adolf Hitler, came to the power in 1933. In that time, Germany was facing a extremly bad economic, social and political situation, and a huge humiliation caused by the World War I. So, for Hitler the big responsibles for that were the jews, knowing by a people that can become rich very fast, that were taking away the opportunities for the Germans. The jewish turned into the Germany's main enemies. Before the massive deaths in the Holocaust, a long process was made. First all the jews were registrated and forced to use a specific symbol. They were humiliated and let to die in the most miserable conditions. And no one was saved: even the old, the women and the small kids.



Pictures from Dachau, The first concentration camp opened in 1993
The Nazi regime started to create the concentration camps: but initially they were just a few and weren't the most important element of the regime's xenophobia.
The big part of the jewish population started to be concentrated in the big cities, in Germany and in the occupied territories (especially Poland, Austria and Czechoslovakia). Many jews from the countries came to the cities and were put in the ghettos: urban districts separated from the rest of the cities, where only the jews could live. They were deprived of all their rights and became employees of the German industry.
Evacuation of the Warsaw Ghetto in 1943
However the big intention of Hitler wasn't leave the jews in these ghettos. He intended to invade the Soviet Union and put them - the jews and the other discriminated groups - in Siberia. But, when Hitler failed to invade the Soviet Union, Hitler turned to the massive creation of concentration and extermination camps. The ghettos were evacuated until 1943, and the jews were taken to these concentration camps.
But now, not only the jews are being arrested, but also members of other groups: gypsies, homosexuals, politicians (especially Hitler opponents), priests and other members of the Catholic church, black people,
Soviets massively murdered in Belarus
people from the occupied territories who were considered inferiors, and physical and mental disabled.
Many concentration camps were opened in Germany and the occupied territories. The living conditions in the forced labour or concentration camps was extremely bad. The physical and psychological terror were a constant by day and by night. The prisioners were constantly fearing by their lifes. And of course, all the work was completly unecessary and had only one purpose: to humiliate and to weaken the prisioners until the death, usually some weeks after they arrived to the camps. Of course, many other prisioners were killed by massive shootings, physical and psychological tortures and starvation.
Entrance to Aushcwitz-Birkeneau camp
In 1942 started the construction of the first extermination camps, like Treblinka, Berzec and Sobibor. Big ovens were built, as the destination of the people that arrived by trains in terrible conditions - many of them dying before the end of the travel -, and were killed in a couple of hours. The most common way to the quick death was the use of toxic gases.
Later, also the forced labour camps become extermination camps, as a consequence of the so called Final Solution decided in the Wannsee Conference (1942). In this conference it was decided that there was only one "good solution" (in the nazi way) for the jewish problem: take all the jews present in the nazi territory and bring them to the extermination camps to be killed quickly (some of them could work under extreme conditions until their death). The objective was to kill all the jewish population, in the so called genocide.

But of course not all of the prisioners had this treatment: some of them were considered "special" prisioners and didn't pass by this slow death process. Prisioners like politicians, militaries, special members of the church, high-educated people and others that didn't belong to the groups to be exterminated. In fact, many germans that weren't jews, gypsies, homossexuals, etc, were arrested - usually by the opposition to Hitler's government - and were sent to these camps, not having to work on them or die in the gas chambers.

Victims of starvation

Victim of the nazi medical experiments
The nazis abused of the prisioners in other way. Many doctors and scientists used the prisioners as guinea pigs for medical experiments. For example the homossexuals were tested to see why did they have a
different sexual orientation, and many mental disables to study they diseases. The medical experiments brought some considerable results to the scientific community. However, they were obtained by the less human way: abusing, torturing and making the tests without the person's agreement.

During the World War II, when the Nazis realized that the things could not be going as they wished, and the possibility of loosing the war started to be a reality, the death of prisoners increased a lot. The activity of the gas chambers was continuous. In Auschwitz about 8000 people were killed by day, during the final solution, and arrived to 15000 in the last year the camp was used.

The persons that survived from the concentration camps were never looking like before
When the soviet troops released these camps, they were shocked about what they saw. And very quickly the world was in shock too. It's true that the population wasn't allowed to visit the camps, and they were very far away from the cities. And obviously in the occupied countries, especially in Poland, the population was against them. And what about the german population? Even not being authorised to visit the camps, it was obvious for everyone that the things that were happening inside these camps weren't good. Despite the fact that the people were in shocked when they discovered the extreme barbaric conditions of the camps, the true is that the german population was indifferent about was going on in the camps. The anti-Semitism wasn't only a crazy idea of the members of the Nazist party. The German population was in general extremly anti-semitic. They just didn't care about the destination given to the jews or to the other groups of prisioners. For them, the killing of these people was a benefit for the society. They were more worried about the war.

Gas chambers.


So, what happened after the release of these camps? Did the deaths stop immediatly? No. The soviet troops were busy in fighting the nazis and to arrive to Berlin. The most near cities to the camps, were devastated. And the prisioners didn't have anything - just the clothes they were wearing. So in many cases, after the release, the prisioners came back to the camps. Of course it was a bad idea, because many of them commited suicide. The nazis were cruel, but they didn't know anything about the soviets. Without knowing what could happen to them, many of the prisioners killed themselves.

The world is still in shock everytime the theme of the Holocaust is discussed. And it should be. In Dachau, even decades after its close, I could feel that there wasn't no hope inside the walls. The happiness, the joy, the fun... remained beyond the walls. In total, about 15000 camps were created by the nazists, among big camps, supporting camps, forced labour camps and extermination camps.
No one can imagine the horror lived in these camps. The prisioners weren't human beings anymore. They became less than a living creature.
Should these concentration camps be preserved as a memory of what the human being can do to himself, even in the center of the Western civilization.
There's no words to describe this atrocity and unfortunately there have been similar cases like this after the end of the World War II in many countries around the world.
I just hope that this could come to an end, in honour of these innocent people. These kind of cruelties only destroy the Human kind and the best we have: the respect for the others, and the richness of being different.





"There our troops found sights, sounds, and stenches horrible beyond belief, cruelties so enormous as to be incomprehensible to the normal mind."
Words of the Colonel William W. Quinn of the US 7th Army about what he discovered in the Dachau concentration camp.

quinta-feira, 23 de janeiro de 2014

Eurovision: Destination - Copenhagen 2014 (I)

Last year was impossible to me to put my comments about all the countries that participated in the Eurovision Song Contest 2013. Now, here I am trying to comment the songs for this year.
Let's see if this year I will present all my comments.
Let's start with the countries that have selected their songs and artists last year.

Ukraine and Maria Yaremchuk

Font: eurovisiontimes.wordpress.com

Last year Ukraine came back to the TOP3, finishing in 3rd place, with a beautiful song, and it best result since 2008.
However, last year's song was quite different from the style that Ukraine usually sends to Eurovision. But this year the old Ukraine is back. Unfortunately for me, it left some of the quality away. Of course it's too early to say if this song will be well-succeed in the Eurovision, since only 3 countries have selected, so far, their artists and songs. But I can assure than it will be almost impossible to Ukraine to obtain the same 3rd place as last year.
As for the direct competition, the 2nd ranked, Victoria Petrik with the song "Love is Lord", could be a good bet to the Eurovision. I can't say the same about the 3rd ranked, Viktor Romanchenko.
But at least the winning song, is a song that the people can remember best when will be the time to vote. And of course Maria is very carismatic on stage, and has a tuned vocal tract. We can wait a good show from Ukraine. Because as usual, even with lower quality songs, Ukraine always brings great shows to the Eurovision stage.
Ukraine will be in the grand final again, because of the song and of course because Ukraine will have voting on the same semi-final, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, Moldova, Portugal and Spain.

Albania and Herciana Matmuja


For me Albania is a very particular country in the Eurovision. It started by sending good songs (or at least at an average-quality level), and since 2011 they are sending a crap song followed by a good song. The big surprise of me was on 2012. Rona Nishliu had a great voice indeed, but only a few people could think on giving her the 5th place, which shows that the song was appreciate not only buy the juries, but also by the public.
After the bad song selected by Albania, it seems that this year, this balcanic country made a better choice. At least, is far better than the last year.
It's an interisting sing, with some unexpected changes especially in the beginnig, and with an interesting mix of instruments and styles. However, this makes more difficult to understand the song. Many people could not understand the meaning of the song. This doesn't mean that the song doesn't have a strong message. The problem is that the song's structure doesn't allow the singer to show that.
Despite the fact that will be a little difficult for the people to remember and to identify themselves with the music, when will be the time to vote, at least it's originality is an extra factor that the 2nd and 3rd ranked didn't have.
Herciana has a good voice, but anything special. A place in the grand final will be more thanks to the juries than thanks to the public. And if Albania wants a place in the grand final, needs to invest a lot on the stage presentation, since the orchestra present in the national final is not allowed, and only Montenegro is the only country that usuallt gives some points to Albania, and will vote in the first semi-final. The countries that usually give many points to Albania will not participate (like Croatia and Turkey) or will be in the other semi-final (like Greece, Macedonia, Switzerland and Austria).
Unlike Ukraine, I need to see more songs to see if Albania will have good chances to go to the final. But in a semifinal where will be the gigants of the Eastern block, it will be a very hard work.



Good luck for both countries.
At least we are starting better than last year.

quarta-feira, 11 de dezembro de 2013

O que diria Jesus Hoje?

 
Apesar de há muito tempo (mesmo muito) não ter feito aqui mais nenhuma crítica a nenhum livro que tenha lido, ou do qual tenha tido conhecimento, achei por bem fazer uma referência a este, a começar pelo título.
De facto, para crentes ou não crentes, que conheçam a História (pelo menos a quem é oficialmente apresentada pelas Igrejas Cristãs) e a pessoa de Jesus, ficariam certamente intrigados por saber quala  opinião que Jesus teria sobre o nosso mundo actual.
Bem, partindo daquilo que a Igreja ensina de que Jesus é Omnipotente, certamente que já estaria à espera de que a Humanidade no século XXI estivesse a viver neste planeta de uma maneira pelo menos parecida a esta. Mas, acreditando que o Homem tem capacidade para escolher o seu destino e de usar da melhor maneira que as suas capacidades o entendam, aquilo de que tem ao seu dispor, certamente que muitas coisas devem deixar Jesus estupefacto.
O livro, ao contrário do que se poderia pensar, não se baseia em conjecturas infundamentadas, mas parte antes daquilo que se encontra na Bíblia, por vezes baseado em relados de Historiadores da época, para argumentar sobre qual seria a opinião de Jesus sobre inúmeros assuntos, dando exemplos de como o Homem tem procedido erradamente ao ter interpretado mal o que de facto Jesus queria dizer com os seus gestos, as suas palavaras e os seus comportamentos.
Desde o eterno dualismo riqueza/pobreza, passando pela política e pela forma como as nossas sociedades vivem actualmente, os progressos feitos nos campos das ciências e a forma como eles são usados, incluindo assuntos mais internos à Igreja (aqui o autor tem como ponto de referência a Igreja Católica) como o casamento dos padres, o divórcio, o papel das mulheres dentro da instituição bem como o respeito pelas minorias e pelos perseguidos/refugiados.
A ideia com que eu fiquei, foi de que de facto a mensagem que Jesus queria transmitir não era tão conservadora, nem tão injusta, nem tão afastada do dia-a-dia das pessoas e sobretudo nem era uma justificação para todos os crimes e atrocidades que se têm cometido ao longo dos séculos em seu nome, e que ainda hoje se cometem.
O autor alerta para o facto de que muitos cristãos têm actuado ao longo dos séculos como os fariseus que Jesus tanto criticava: têm dado importância à letra e não ao seu conteúdo nem aplicabilidade na prática. O que muitas vezes era apresentado como regras e normas são apenas sinais daquilo que se deve fazer na prática. A purificação do corpo que os judeus faziam com inúmeros rituais de higiene e de abstinência de certos alimentos, na verdade deveria ser entendida no ponto de vista de Jesus, como a purificação da alma de maus pensamentos e de más obras.
Segundo o autor, a base do ensinamento de Jesus é a de colocar o ser humano como centro e ponto culminante do funcionamento da nossa sociedade, da nossa economia e da nossa política, e não utilizá-lo como mero meio para satisfazer as necessidades destas áeras. E entenda-se aqui o ser humano, como todas as pessoas do mundo, sem qualquer excepção, porque todas elas são importantes para o funcionamento e existência da civilização humana.
De facto Jesus teria muito a dizer hoje sobre a actual sociedade humana. Mas seria apenas dizer mal do que fizémos até hoje? Não devemos também pensar em todos os esforços que têm sido feitos para um desenvolvimento mais harmonioso de todos os países e na oferta de oportunidades a todas as pessoas independemente da raça, cor, sexo ou crença religiosa? No entanto, há ainda um longo caminho a percorrer, e os dados que o autor apresenta ao longo do livro, sobretudo das provações que as crianças e mulheres apresentam hoje em muitos países do mundo, são exemplo do enorme trabalho que ainda falta fazer, e de que talvez Jesus Hoje nos diria que ainda falta muito para o nosso mundo viver na sociedade justa e equílibrada que ele tantas vezes defendeu. Sejamos crentes ou não, os planos e a mensagem de Jesus para este mundo, ainda está muito além do que nós vivemos hoje. Será que lá chegaremos de facto um dia?

segunda-feira, 9 de dezembro de 2013

Italy: one country, many homelands?

Now we are used to see Italy as a single unified nation, the true is that this reality is very recent. This south-European country has actually many differences among its territory. And these differences are so strong and deep that is impossible to talk and see Italy as a single reality.
Usually it’s normal to divide Italy in two different realities: The North rich as more developed, and the South less rich and less developed. However, with a more thorough economic analysis is possible to divide Italy into 3 different realities.
As I said before, the reasons for this division are very strong and some of them older than we can imagine. Basically we can find historical, political, economic and social differences.

Historical Differences:

Until de 1860’s Italy wasn’t an unified country, but divided into several states that have been changed over the centuries. Since the Roman Empire to the Risorgimento in the 1860’s many independent States were created and eliminated in this peninsula. The political unity was lost by the invasions of the Barbarian people in the end of the Roman Empire (476 a. C.). Since them Italy was the place of many small states, principalities and kingdoms where the political and religious (the Pope) powers fought to obtain a bigger part of territory. In the end of the Middle-Age some cities in the Italian peninsula started to prosper and were the birth place of a big cultural movement: The renaissance. However this prosperity was concentrated almost only in the Center and North of the Peninsula. This has consequences in the tourism. The North has much more historical attractions than in the South. It's possible to see in the North monuments that attest the historical richness of this region: the Renaissance, the influences from the Austrian Empire, the richness of Vatican and other catholic monuments.
The historians have found in the Renaissance movement an attempt to unify the country.

Map of the Italian peninsula in 1860

Before the unification, the Italian peninsula was composed by:
-        The Kingdom of Sardinia;
-        The kingdom of two Sicilies;
-        The Papal States;
-        One part of the Austrian Empire;
-        Habsburg sicons;

These independent states had their own laws, culture and social habits. So, before the unification, the divisions remained. Many people refer to the Italy unification more to a colonial level than to a really unification.

Economic differences:

In this field we can see not two but three different regions in Italy.

The economic differences are a consequence of the economic past. First, it’s a consequence of the entrance of the northern regions in the two Industrial Revolutions. In the North we can find the Industrial Triangle (Turin, Milan and Genoa) that focused their industrialization on specialization and small products, taking advantage of the geographical proximity to the most developed European countries (Switzerland, Austria, Germany and France), which benefits from a lower distance costs. Also since the population density is bigger in the North, is has been also a benefit for the domestic and foreign companies to install their affiliates in the North, where the workforce is more abundant, than in the South.
Since the more technologically advanced industries are almost all in the North, this also means that the North contributed more for the economic italian performance.
On the other side... the South - the so called Mezzogiorno, economically charecterized by an retarded agriculture and a big absense of manufacturing industries.
There have been many attempts to develope the south and to reduce the lack between the North and South, but the results are very far away from the intended.
And here it comes the "Third Italy" a purely economic concept. Between the very industrialized North based on leading industries and the South with many problems on its industrialization, there's the so called "Middle Italy" - a region that experienced a rapid growth in the lighter industries, caractherized by a small and medium sized family firms - . This region is also caratherized by an active role of the women, that started to replace the men in the agricultural work and next in the industries. These small firms are the cuore of suche division, and are assuming an important role in the importance of the "Third Italy" in the national and international context, because these firms are benefiting for the labour specialization, the production decentralization from the biggest industries in the North for these smaller.

Besides the industry, there's another economic sector that has an huge importance on the Italian economy: the tourism. And even here we can see many differences between the North and the South.
As I said before, the Historical Background of the North, made of it one of the best tourist destinations in the World: cities as Rome, Florence and Venice atracts every year many tourists all over the world. And also the natural resources in the north contrubute for it.
From the Cathedrals, to the museums, the Palaces, the Opera's Theaters, the cosmopolitan cities to the beauty of the nature, everything makes of the North, a important tourist destination.
However, in the recent years the South has focused on the specifics of its region, in order to attract tourists, by the agritourism and inside it, the Wine-tourism.
Using the small size of the big part of the cities in the South, the region has focused on presenting the relation between tourism and rural life as an attraction. The recent importance given to the environment and the biological food (the so called green-environment) is helping the south to attract many tourists. Many tourist units and hotels have been oppened in the recent years to give the possibility to the foreigners to feel the particularities of this unknow side of Italy, together to the possibility to live in a more rural environment.
The wine is maybe the most famous product that attracts many tourists to this region, to see where it is produced, attracting many wine producers to the region and increasing the procution of those that are already installed.
surprisingly, the tourist actitvity and profits are increasing in the South, while in the North are facing a problem of decreasing.
However, the South stills attracting tourists almost only from the rest of Italy.

Social differences:

There are some big social differences between the South and the North that have been increasing in the recent years because the South is still following the old traditions meanwhile the North have been broke them and is moving toward the modernity.
The socio-economic backwardness together with the weight of corruption, caractherized nowadays the South of Italy that persistes in not following the modernization of the North and the rest of the Western Europe. The south still follows the same traditions of a patriarchal society based on the family. The importance of the family as the central unit of the society has consequences in the social relations and also in the economic activity. In the South is usual to have a huge lunch time (for example) where teh big part of the economic activities stop in order to give to the people the opportunity to go home to have a big lunch and have some sleep.
The importance of family is also caractherized by the existence of a big size families living together in the same or adjacent houses. While in the North is normal the youngers leave the parent's home to go to the University or when they marry (which occurs generally in a younger age than in the North), in the South is normal to stay at parent's home, at least until the youngers have a solid career or marriage.
On the other side, the North, where the youngers leave their parent's home to study and to marriage, and despite the fact that the family has also an important role in the society, it's given much more importance to the individual and the family's size is quite different from the South. The average age for marry is also later and it's not common to stop the economic activities ao long in the lunch time (it's even more common not close at all).
The importance given to the individual development is the social cause of the development of the North.

Political differences:


As I said in the previous point, the corruption has a deep penetration in the South. But the corruption is also very common in the North as we have been seeing over the years with the discovery of many corruption scandals, some of them involving members of the local, regional and also central governments.
Relate to the corruption, is the big national inbestigation called Mani Pulite that revealed many scandals related to the vote system and others. This investigation led to the fragmentation of two major political parties: the Christian Democrats and the Communists.
One of the consequences was the ceration of the Lega Nord in 1990 that proposed the creation of Padania: an independent State, agregating some of the regions in the North, and making an independent State with them, basing their oppinion in the fact that the North is suffering of the corruption caused by the Central Government. Unlike other party forces, the Lega Nord has a big importance, specially in the North. They also joined forces with Forza Italia the Berlusconi's party. However, they became opponents quickly. After this break, Lega Nord returned to the regionalism defence, arguing that the North souldn't share its big economic sucess with the South, and shouldn't  be harmed by the bad economic and development performance of the South. So, as we can see the reason for the creation of Padania doesn't have a Historical or cultural reason, but the similar soci-economic values and background. But of course the different economic performance can use as a social difference between the North and South, in ways of level of living and access to goods and services.




As we can see in this article, there are many differences between the North and the South. And they don't tend to disappear, but to increase. North has been always richer than the South thanks to its strategic position and to the Historical Background. Currently the break with tradition in the North is aggravating the differences on both regions.
And in the political and tourist fields, the differences are more than obvious.
The Third Italy is contributing to the existence of more competition between the regions among the Italian territory.
Are all theses differences enough to a future division of Italy in two or more independent territories?

terça-feira, 26 de novembro de 2013

Cuba: the end of comunism?

1959, 1st of January: the revolutionary movement of Fidel Castro droped the Fulgencio Batista's dictatorship. With this event, Cuba started a new era. And it seems that Cuba is facing now a new big change.


Cuba's Revolution: when Fidel took the control of Cuba
But let's go back to understand why the current differences are changing so much the economic and political environment in Cuba. After the revolution, the new government nacionalized  the economic apparatus and stablished strategic relations with the Sovietic Union. But only in 1965 was born the Modern Comunist Party. In that year, the country held a total adherence to the Marxist-Leninist Communism: all the economic activities were under the government control and all the workers became public employees. And despite the fact that the Government - as usual in all the Comunist Regimes - couldn't supply all the basic goods and services to the population, it resisted over the years thanks to the population's support.
This was possible because the Government supplied many services like education and health cares for free.
But there are other reasons for all the support given to the government by the population. First, the propaganda, second the USA blockade to Cuba (The Government used it as an excuse for the shortage of many goods and services) and third the support and economic help by the Sovietic Union (because it was good for them to have an ally near to the USA).
With the fall of the Sovietic Union, Cuba lost it's principal buyer and supplier. The shortage became even worst. Since it was impossible to continue to buy the goods for the population in the international market with the so called "comunist prices" - prices with scount -, in the 90's the Government decided to reduce even more the standard of living. The population in general started to live with less goods, less income and the hunger became even more normal.
Second the Government started to authorized the private investments in the tourism, one of the strongest sectores for the economy. This decision truned into a good decision because with the increase in the number of tourists, more private companies invested in teh country in this sector, the country received more money and many jobs were created.
However the situation was still dramatic for the population that continued to move to the USA hoping to find a better life.
The brothers Fidel and Raul that are controling Cuba
In the 31st of July of 2006 due to a big disease, Raul Castro - Fidel's brother - took the control of the government and the people though that everything will still the same. They were totally wrong. Obviously the Communist Party was still the only party, and continue to rule by its own decisions without accepting any kind of opposition. But the economic activity changed a lot. Raul introduced huge economic changes, like the liberalization of the big part of the economic activity and the extinction of more than half a million jobs in the public sector with the objective of having at least 40% of workers working in the private sector by 2015. And in 2011 the population was authorized for the first time in decades to sell and buy their own properties.
Of course these big and fast changes are bringing other consequences specially for the economic agents, like the inflation, but it seems that the Government will not turn back.
The Cuban Government is making the same changes that China made some years ago: both Governments understood that it's necessary to provide a good way of living to the population to them accept the absence of liberty. With no economic development there's no future for the cuban comunist regime.
Now, we only need to wait and see when (and if) the population will realize the differences between the liberty to make their own money and have their own activity and the liberty to say what they want and to choose their own government, and the fact that both are important and essential for a good way of living.

quinta-feira, 21 de novembro de 2013

The Legacy of Keynes

A crisis is always associated to a fall of the paradigm into force. And the current crisis isn't an exception.

Today we see many economists bringing back the theories and models of Keynes. Despite the wrong idea some people have about theories, the world is seeing now that the contribution of Keynes for the economics theory is broader that what many though was.
When Keynes in 1930 argued that the USA weren't in a simple recession and the markets couldn't solve the solution by themselves, as the people belive then, the world was shocked.
In 1936 Keynes published his most famous  work: "General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money", despite his fame and contribution to the european economy and politics were already considerable.
With many publications and an important role in the negotiations of the Treaty of Versailles, with his General Theory,  Keynes showed the weaknesses and failures of the economic theory to explain the problems that were hauting the Western Economies.
The Great Depression of 1929 with its consequences - exponential growth of the unemployment, banks and companies failures, and decrease in the industrial production, money suplly and international trade flows - changed the way as the people were seeing the world and the economy. The economists trained in the current theory weren't able to explain how the world come to that situation: the faith in the mechanisms of self-recovery of the markets were put aside as the crisis was becoming worse.
This was the perfect time for Keynes, to struggle against the current theories.
At that time the economic theory already defined the economic cycles theory. According to it, the economic growth of the capitalist economies evolved according to 4 phases:
  • ascendent phase (propserity or expansion);
  • inflection from the ascending to descending;
  • descending phase (depression or contraction);
  • inflection from the descending to ascending;
Keynes concentrated his Theory in the last phase, in order to help to recover from the crisis the Western World was suffering. Keynes created a Theoretical model to explain the insufficiency of aggregate demand, the decrease in the capacity of investment and consumption and the decrease in the confidence of the economic agents.
The Western Economies survived to the 1929 Great Depression acording to Keynes predictions. One of the ways founded to solve the Depression was the restoration of the confidence in the markets, thanks to the public intervention in the macroeconomic field, by the decrease in the interest rates and the increase in the budget deficits.
Using the explanation of the existence of equilibrium solutions below the full employment and some possible recipes for the economy becomes to prosperity, the contribution of Keynes was benefited by the New Deal policies of Roosevelt in the USA, the cycle inversion in many Western European Countries (thanks to expansionary monetary and fiscal policies) and of course the abandonment of the global standard system.
Keynes showed a new short-run macroeconomic approach, based on the management of the aggregate demand through public incentives to increase the investment and consumption.
However his theories were sometimes misunderstood. When he annouced the end of the laissez faire, he wasn't trying to predict the end of the private innitiative: the capitalism wasn't a model to shoot down, but to improve.
Many economists though that the solution was to become a planning and central management economy. For Keynes the capitalism should remain because it wasn't a wrong system: it was only imperfect in the way it was beeing applied in the real economies that time. For Keynes the markets should work with public incentives to stimulate the investment and consumption and fight the unemployment, leaving intact the private property.
Since then, according to the cycle theory, the crisis couldn't be avoided, the solution according to keynes was be already prepared to struggle and recover from this situation.
After the Western World recover from the Great Depression, the economists though that a solution for all the depressions was founded. In fact, in the next recesions suffered by the USA (1975, 1982 and 1991), the Federal Reserve used the policies proposed by Keynes: decrease in the interest rate in order to stimulate the economy, accompanied sometimes by the decrease in taxes and increase in the public expenditure. However in the Asiatic Great Crash of 1997, the affected economies didn't follow the Keyne's recipe: the policies applied were the budget austerity and the increase in the interest rate. The governments of these countries knew perfectly the Keynes policies. But they realized that untill 1997 they were following the policies issued by the International Monetary Fund and the U.S. Treasury. So, the governments selected another way to solve the crash.

After Keynes, our world faced big crisis and is now facing the biggest crisis after the Great Depression in the Keynes' time. And the current big crisis showed that it's  necessary a new approach and understand of the Keynes' theories, for a better implementation of those theories.

sexta-feira, 15 de novembro de 2013

Voynich: the alien manuscript?

The manuscript's cover

It's a completly mistery. From the texts to the draws, no one can translate and find the meaning of these 204 pages (although it seems that 28 pages were lost). Baptized as Voynich in 1912 by the antiquarian Wilfrid Voynich, after discovered in the Jesuit college in Villa Mandragone.
Today we can admire this mysterious manuscript in the Beineck rare book and manuscript Library in the University of Yale - USA.
This manuscript doesn't have an author, a title or even a date. However in 2009 some researchers from the University of Arizone, thanks to the radiocarbon dating, put the origin of this manuscript from 1404 - 1438.




Let's start to analyse the figures:
- 113 of them represent what it's called the allien plants: no one knows or ever saw these plants - they don't exist in any place of our planet;

Some of the alien plants
- from the sheets 73 to 86 it's possible to see some bizarre draws: many women naked, maybe pregnant, in strange positions and with the feet submerge in a dark liquid: there are also many tubs connecting the groups of figures, but no one knows the meaning;

Some of the strange naked women

- we can also see 25 diagrams that seem to be a celestial map, astral charts and astrological schemes: it's possible to see the sun, the moon, some Zodiac signs and other heavenly bodies - however not all agree with that - , this section is even more strange because shows things that it's not supposed to be known in such anciente time;

Some of the celestial maps
Finally the mysterious language. There are many Hypotheses. In 1900 William Newbold argued that this manuscript should have been written by Rugegro Vacone, an english philosopher from the middle-age. Later in 1946, Leonell Strong from the University of Yale, said that this manuscript should be a ciphertext wrote in medieval english. Some years later, two experts in encryption from the american army put the Hypothesis that the text is written in a philosofic artificial language, like an ancient Esperanto, by an ancient alchemist.
Many other hypothesis were made over the years about the language: that should be written in ancient cipher hebrew, pre-Gallic, ancient Scotish or in nahuatl, the ancient aztech language. In 1978 the philologist John Stojko argued that the language is ancient ucranian and in 1987, Leo Levitor said that the text was wrote in Catarian, an eretical christian group, in their secret alphabet.
Jorge Stolfu from the Brazilian University of Campinas had another idea: according to him, a chinese delegation made a phonetic transliteration from the chinese, during it's travel in Europe. And finally one of the last hypothesis was made by Nicholas Pelling, who said that the author was the italian architect Antonio Averlino, the so called "Il Filatore".
With so many theories about the origin, the name, the author, the purpose, the language, the sense of the figures, this manuscript is becoming even and even more intesristing. After so many hipothesis, Gordon Rugg from the University of Keele and Robert Brumbough from the University of Yale, made a radical hypothesis: there's no mistery aorund the significance of anything in this manuscript because it's just a swindle.