Eurovision 2015: after Vienna (I) - semifinal I

Today we celebrate 1 week after the grand final and the victory of Sweden. Like always, many controversies haunted the show, making people to strongly discuss on the media about many aspects, but especially the results.

But before the Grand Final, let's analyze the first semi-final.
There were some surprises about the qualifiers. Russia won the semifinal, with an extraordinary performance, receiving points from all the countries. Besides Russia, Estonia was another expected finalist due to all the favouritism after the song was revealed.. Belgium also, with the originality of the song and the amazing voice quality of Löic was another qualifier everyone was expected. After two years acheiving good places in the grand final, the solid career and the good voice of Trijntje weren't enough to put The Netherlands in the final one more time. But the bets were predicting that.
So for the expected finalists, there were also Georgia, with a ver charismatic performance in a vey unique style, Albania with lots of favouritism, and Romania and Greece, more because of the country and less than because of the song's quality. However, both countries were able to give good performances in the semifinal, especially Greece, that transformed something very basic in something astonishing.Also Belarus, after two qualifications in a row, and due to the favouritism of the song, were also a predictable qualified. All the controverse and the neighbors and the singers that made the group Genealogy from Armenia, made it also a qualified. The singers' voices were far behind of what it was expected, made some people disappointed, especially the juries that placed the song in 12th place. If Moldova and Macedonia had low chances before the show, they were even lower when they acted, because their performances were too weak for many people. With one place remaining in the predictions, the oppinions were divided between Denmark that, even not being loved by the public could be saved by the juries, Finland that could receive many votes by the public that could overcome the lack of votes from the juries, and Hungary that could receive some votes from the public and the juries. At the end the qualified was Hungary, the only one placed in the TOP10 by the juries, since Denmark was placed in 11th in the juries and Finland in 16th and last, making impossible the finnish qualification even with the 10th place in the public.
The lack of emotions in the belarussian performance damaged the  chances for a qualification.
Finally there was another country that the people didn't put in the quaifiers but, after the performance and the qualifications was put in the TOP10 of possible winners in the bettings: Serbia. The song didn't have anything original or with good quality. But, the strong performance of Bojana together with a good presence on stage of all the elements, made them a strong qualifier.

Eurovision 2015: get ready for the Final!

Tonight we will now who will succeed to Conchita as the winner of the biggest musical contest in the world.
After two semifinals with some controversies, we can say a lot about the final.

Song's alignment

Unlike some previous years, this year the raffle was only to know in which part of the final the song will perform.
Last year Austria broke the coincidence of the winning song being from the 2nd half of the final. Tonigth we could have the same situation with Sweden performing in 10th place. However the attentions go to the 25th place for Russia and the last place to Iatly, with some people arguing that it was a shamless way to favour Russia and Italy. However, in some cases performing last didn't help the entry: it worked in the opposite way. Last year the United Kingdom was one of the favourites and finished in the 17th, with many people arguing that performing last was prejudicial for Molly.

Favourites

Italy and Sweden remain in the group of the possible winners. Sweden is now the favourite and Russia increased its favouritism since Polina's performance on the semifinal. The same happened with Serbia and latvia that, after the semi-finals are now on the TOP 10 in the bets. Spain and especially Slovenia are now out of the Top10. But like befora we can have a surprise. There is no stand out song that remains an unquestionable possible winner.
A especial mention to our guest, Australia, that is among the 10 favourites!

Less Favoutrites

Even after the qualification, there are some songs that the people predict that will end in the bottom 5: and some of them many people think that didn't deserve to be in the final. I'm talking especially about Poland, Hungary, Lithuania and Armenia. Even not receiving bad reacts Montenegro is also between the less favourites.

Controversies

It seems that we will not have the same problem with Russia as we had last year. The Polina's declarations first supporting Conchita's victory and later supporting all the forms of love surely made a better impression in the media and in the public oppinion.
The controversies around Armenia and Poland remains, and around Armenia will be more difficult since tonight Armenia and Azerbaijan will be and act in the same show.
After Krista in 2013 and especially after a victory of a drag queen last year, the two same-sex kisses in the lithuanian entry will not have a huge impact.

As usually, Eurovision can't please to everyone! But let's hope the best performance to win!!!

Eurovision 2015: second semi final is coming

Tonight we will have the second semifinal of ESC 2015, and we will know the last 10 finalists fro saturday's final. We still have many favourites in this semifinal, making it more stronger than the other one, for many people.´

Contorversies

If there are more favourites in this semifinal, it's not because if the controversies. Only the polish song is being talked by other reasons besides the song. Monika is so far the only singer to be on stage on a wheelchair in the History of this competition. Many poeple is arguing that people will vote for Poland not for the song but only because of her physical condition.

Voting

There are also some political voting in this semi-final. We have three scandinavian countries - Iceland, Sweden and Norway, two baltic neighbors - Latvia and Lithuania, and Israel that usually gives points to Azerbaijan.
We have two countries that were never benefited by the political voting - Poland (last year was a n exception), Switzerland and especially Czech Republic (that was two times last in the semifinal and second to last the other time).

(Possible) qualifiers

As I said before, there are many favourites in this semifinal. Sweden, Norway and Azerbaijan are the biggest favourites! Despite the recent unfair places, Israel and Slovenia are among the favourites. Even being very difficult, Slovenia can win this semifinal. Many think that, fearing a permanent withdraw from the Eurovision, many people will vote for Czech Republic. We need to admit that its their best entry.
As for Iceland, even being far away from originality, the type of melody and the neighbors will help Iceland to qualify.
Even being one of the weakest songs, Cyprus is among the possible qualifiers for many people.
Poland for the controverse and the quality of Monika's song, Malta and Latvia have also some chances to advance to the big final on saturday. Ireland and Montenegro have also some chances, even with the absence of neighbors for Montenegro: people believe that the juries will help these songs.
San Marino, Switzerland and Portugal are the least possible qualifiers according to many people's oppinion. Not having any block voting in their side, even with good performances, only the juries could help this three entries.

Will we have some surprises like in the last semi final, or will it be all according to the predicitions? Or will we be speechless about the qualifications and non-qualifications?

Eurovision 2015: first semi-final is coming

After all the rehearsals, after the press conferences and after the oppening cerimony, here we are: in the day of the first semi-final!

Controversies

This semifinal is full of controversial performances. First, from Finland the punk band with people with  developmental disabilities. The song is considered awful by almost everyone, and it cames in the bottom 5 of people's preferences very frequently. However, let's not be naive. People don't vote only based on the best song or performance: many times do exactly the opposite. And if the finnish people selected this song as their entry, probably it was because the finnish people believed that there are other aspects besides the quality of the performance. I'm not seeing the juries loving this entry, but on the public's side, a mass adhesion could put this band with the shortest song of all time in Eurovision, in the final.

Second... Armenia. The entry that already changed its name due to allegations of political connection with the armenian genocide in 1915, made by Azerbajan and Turkey. Even arguing that the theme of the song is to not deny your armenian root, the images used in the background with the region of Nagorno-Karabakh and all the caracthers in the videoclip using clothes from the time of the genocide, doesn't leave space for doubts.

And Russia of course. For the same reasons like last year, it's expected to receive a lot of booing anytime Russia will be in the center of the attentions.

This year, the ukranian withdraw will probably make the tensions stronger and the people to remember it easier. Also, after the victory of a drag queen last year, it will stand out all the problems Russia have with the LGBT people.

Voting

In this semifinal we will have many political blocks. Romania and Moldova, Russia, Belarus and Armenia are the main blocks in this semifinal. Also Belgium and The Nteherlands will change votes between them, giving also many points to Armenia and Greece due to the immigrants. Greece have Hungary too, that usually gives them many points. On its side, Hungary usually receives points from Finland and Romania.

From the balkan block, we have in this semifinal Serbia and Macedonia.

So, will many songs receive more points than their performances deserve?

(Possible) qualifiers

The rehearsals made some changes in the predictions. If reinforced some as favourites, put others out of the possible qualifiers and grew the chances of some of the less popular.

Russia, Belgium, Albania and Estonia remains as the favourites, after their good rehearsals, and in the case of Russia thanks to the political voting too. The Netherlands has its chances very hard now, but a qualification could be possible thanks to Trijntje Oosterhuis voice. However, it's far away from the success of 2013 and 2014. Serbia gained lots of favouritism and could be a surprise tonight. Finland, Denmark and Hungary remains in the bottom of the favourites, but many believe in the qualification of Finland thanks to the controversy. The good vocal capacity of Boggie, make some believe that Hungary can qualify, supported by the juries. As for the rest, the oppinions are more divided. Georgia, Belarus and Greece still have great chances, but many are surprised by the performances of Romania, putting it in the qualifiers, unlike its neighbor Moldova, which the chances were never too high. Finally, about Armenia, its between the 9th and the 12th place in many bettings.
We cannot forget that many people will watch the songs for the first time tonight, and of course the juries has an important role, which cannot be so well predicted by the beookmakers.

Eurovision 2015: Vienna is coming (IX)

Italy - Il Volo con "Grande Amore"

Here we have: one of the biggets favourites of this year contest. Since it returned, Italy has been every year among the favourites and in a good ranking in the bet platforms. However this year the favouritism is even bigger, making Italy win the OGAE's votes. What is the italian recipe for so much euphoria? The answer is very simple! Like before, the representative was selected from the contestants of the Sanremo Music Festival 2015. The selected group was "Il Volo", the winner of the 'Big Artists' category, with the song "Grande Amore". Many factors make this song very popular among the eurofans. First of course the group itself: 3 young guys that would attract many votes among the youngers and the gay people. Second the song: even being a ballad, it sands out from the others by the emotions and the message. Third the boys' voices that are very different from the rest of the entries. And finally the videoclip that brings images very popular in the people's immagination, that makes this song impossible to forget. There's nothing new or original in this song. But the composers had the ability to use all the 'cliches' in a very smart way that will atract the people's votes. If they will manage to put all the emotions on stage, even not deserving, a victory will be very possible.

San Marino - Anita Simoncini & Michele Perniola with "Chain of Lights"

The first thing to stand out about the San Marino's song is that the singer is not Valentina Monetta!!! As usually SMtv San Marino, the public broadcaster, made a internal selection. Even being the first time this duet will be on the Eurovision Song Contest, their names are not completely strange for some people: Anita Simoncini participated in the Junior ESC 2014 as part of the group 'The Peppermints' and Michele Perniola the previous year, both representing San Marino. They are the youngers contestants this year (Anita only turned 16 on 14th of April). So, even being a ballad we could immagine something very strong....but unfortunately it's not what happen. The first second make us believe in the good potential the song could have but after that, all the expectations go away. The youngs' voices are averagely good, but the melodie is very outdated and the impression is very poor. Their voices could be much better explored, especially for the fact that they are young, and a big part of the voters have the same age.
The qualification for the final last year was a big achieve for this small country. However, with this song and being in the hardest semifinal, the qualification will be almost impossible.

Eurovision 2015: Vienna is coming (VIII)

Armenia - Genealogy with "Face the Shadow"

Now let's talk about one of the most controversial entries of this year. It's impossible to not relate this choice from Armenia to the 100 years of the armenian genocide. The selection was made inetrnally by the national broadcaster  Public Television of Armenia (AMPTV). It was cretaed a group purposely for the contest called 'Genealogy'. The idea was to celebrate the armenian presence in the world, invinting armenian singers living in different places of the world: a singer from each continent -  Europe, Asia, Africa, America and Australia and, to complete this idea, a armenian singer living in Armenia ( the singer Inga Arshakyan that already represented Armenia in the Eurovision in 2009).
The controverse started right in the beginning when the armenian delegation was forced to change de name of the song: originally the name was "Don't Deny" but after Azerbaijan had accused this song for having a strong political connotation and for being a message for Turkey and Azerbaijan for not recognize the armenian genocide, the song's name was changed to "Face the shadow".
As for the song, the lyrics is very interesting and the video is amazing. Apart from the political connotation, the idea of joining armenians all over  the world is a good idea. The voices in the videoclip work well together. However, this is the kind of song very difficult to make a good performane on stage, especially in this kind of events like Eurovision. And of course many people only will listen and watch this song for the first time in teh semifinal I and so, will not understand all the idea behind this entry.
Even the simple fact that all the caracthers are dress like the people were dressed in 1915 is another proof of the message behind this song.
Armenia will qualify for the final, also because of the help from Russia, Belgium, Georgia and The Netherlands (countries that usally give many points to Armenia), and let's hope will finish at least in TOP 15.

France - Lisa Angell with "N'oubliez pas"

France hasn't being very lucky in the recent years: actually these have being among the years with the worst results in the french past on this year. For the firs time, they finished in last place laste year.
This year France changes totally the style and follows the trend: ballads. This ballad is a typical french ballad and Lisa has a decent vocal capacity that can perform it well. However, in a year full of ballads, it will be very difficut for the french entry to stand out. However, a result similar to Patrica Kaas in 2009 is very possible. The lyrics and the message are strong and Lisa don't need to make much effort to bring out all the emotions this song needs. France will be already in the Final. It will be very possible for France to not finish in the bottom 5, thanks to the juries. In a year with less quantity of ballads, the prediction could be better.

Eurovision 2015: Vienna is coming (VII)

Australia - Guy Sebastian with "Tonight Again"

The best way to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the Eurovision Song Contest was to invite one of its big fans: Australia!
The european influence in the australian culture is very strong, and Eurovision couldn't be out of it!!!
For the last 30 years Eurovision is a very popular show in Australia, being even more popular in the recent years. From the transmition of the shows to their own voting (which of course wasn't valid for the contest), the public audience in Australia has been growing. But it seems that this year the euphoria will be even bigger!
On 10th of February the European Broadcaster announced that Australia would be authorized to participate in the contest and in March SBS, the australian public broadcaster, announced that Guy Sebastian will be the australian representative, with the song "Tonight Again".
Despite not being very famous in Europe, Guy Sebastian has already a solid career in Australia, and we can expect from him a good performance on stage.
As for the music, I can firstly say: Thank God it's not a ballad.
In a year full of ballads, Australia brings a very dynamic and energetic song, with a good vibration. It's a kind of song where it's very easy to make a good performance os stage: the rhythm itself helps a lot!
Even being just a special participation, if Australia wins this year, it will participate again in 2016, but the host city will be in Europe. Being a country so far away and a big new in the contest, it's vey hard to predict how it will finish in the voting system, especially due to the political voting that still persists.
Let's hope that the juries will help Australia to finish at least in the TOP 10, even though a TOP 5 will be well deserved.


Belgium - Loïc Nottet with "Rhythm Inside"

This year Belgium joined the group of countries that will impress by the originality. It's not the style associated to this contest not even associated to Belgium. After being unsuccessful last year, this western country had bet on a young and very talented voice, which fame is growing in the country.
Yes, as many people are saying, 'Rhythm Inside' could be a song from Lorde - the similarities are really many -, but the singer can bring some originality to his performance, from the live performances we have seen so far.
If it was a country with more influential voting power, this song will be easily in TOP5 in the Final, no matter how the performance would be. However, coming from Belgium and, even with a simple performance as much as the voice of Loïc can show its all potential, the juries may help Belgium to return on stage on saturday's night. It was an excellent  internal selection by Belgian broadcaster Radio Télévision Belge Francophone. At least Belgium will have voting in the same semifinal, The Netherlands, France and Spain.

Eurovision 2015: Vienna is coming (VI)

Azerbaijan - Elnur Hüseynov with "Hour Of The Wolf"

Last year, the azeri entry entered for this country's History in the contest not for the best reasons. For the first time, Azerbaijan didn't finish in the TOP10: they actually finished in the bottom 5, something that made the azeri government to protest, arguing that it was impossible to finish so low, when Azerbaijan came 8th in the juries votes. It seems that azeri government forgot that in 2009 they finished 3rd because of the televoting (2nd in televoting and 8th in the juries) and they even win in 2011 because of the televoting (since the juries gave the 1st place to Italy). Despite the interisting lyrics and the good voice of Dilara, the performance, the melody and the rythm were not good enough to appeal to the public.
However, after that disaster it seems that Azerbaijan have learnt the lesson. The Azerbaijani broadcaster 'İctimai Television' made an internal selection bringing back Elnur from the 2008 contest, but with a completely diiferent style of song.
With the help of swedish composers and songwritters, Azerbaijan brings this year a very powerful ballad, something that could be part of a musical show, with a very strong message. Well made and well produced, it's difficult to find something bad about the song. The only thing really playing against Elnur is the fact that we are in one of the years with most ballads. However this ballad easily stands out from the others.

Of course a great ballads brings the effort of making a great performance of stage at the same level. Despite laste year, we are used to great performances on stage from this country. The absence of Turkey and Ukraine too, will for one hand nake Azerbaijan loose top points, but on the other side will make the ukranian and turkish emigrants to vote in Azerbaijan, So, another victory is very possible.



Poland - Monika Kuszyńska with "In the name of Love"

Last year Poland gave us a very controversial but extremly funny song. This year, the controverse remains but the subject is other. For the first time in Eurovision's History, a person in a wheelchair will perform on stage. Monika Kuszyńska, a 35 years old singer, who suffered a car accident in 2006 that makes her paralyzed from the waist down. However, she didn't give up from a musical career.
Of course after being known that Monika would be the polish artist, many people started to say that a qualification would be possible more bocause of her physical condition than to her voice or song. However, I think that, one way or another, Poland deserves to be in the Grand Final. Since the traditions shows that Poland has not being very successful to achieve the final since 2000, maybe Poland is jus using all the tools it can to qualify.
As for the music, it's a interesting ballad, the lyrics cannot be very original but the message is powerful. Monika herself is a great example we can learn from this edition. If the Monika's voice will be fine, at least the juries will support her. Poland will be very lucky because will have voting on its semifinal many of the countries that give more point to this country: Germany, United Kingdom, Lithuania and Ireland. Unfortunately Poland will perform in the second semifinal, where the most part of favourites are.

Eurovision 2015 - Vienna is coming (V)

From the east I'm going now to the West

United Kingdom - Electro Velvet with ""Still in Love with You"

From the first disappoint about the song, many people started later to argue that it was expected that UK would send a song like this, as a reaction for the unfair results the country has having, especially last year.

One thing is sure: almost no one was expecting a song like this from the UK. BBC made an internal selection (as usally) and gives us this year a duo, Electro Velvet (made up of Alex Larke and Bianca Nicholas) with some previous musical experience.

It's a completley entry joke, funny and a little crazy! It brings again an old style, mixed with some modern aspects.

However, if at the beginning the song received many dislikes, the true is that after some weeks, many more people started to appreciate the song. Indeed, the song is very different in style from the majority of the songs in the contest and will remain in people's memory at the time to vote.

The United Kingdom this year can be a pleasant surprise in the Grand Final.

Being a member of the BIG 5, the UK will be immediately in the Final. However, taking into account the recent past of this country, it will be almost impossible to finsih in the TOP15. Depending on the live performance, this song at least has quality to not finish in the bottom 5.

Spain - Edurne with "Amanecer"

In the recent years Spain is reversing the way of poor results it was having especially since the introduction of semifinals.

In 2012 with Pastora Soler Spain finished on the TOP 10 and, after a very bad result in 2013 (second to last), last year with Ruth Lorenzo brought again to Spain the 10th place. So, it seems that the recipe for success for Spain is to send a great ballad sung by a lady with a powerful ballad. This year Spain bet on the same type of performance. The national broadcaster TVE selected internally the singer and the song. Edurne has a solid musical career and it's obvious that she has a good vocal capacity. As for the song, it's in line with the recent successful spanish entries: it's a ballad full of emotion and with a rich message.

Even in a year full of ballads, the Spanish one can easily stand out from the others. So, being already at the Fnal, at least the TOP 10 is guaranteed again for Spain. The rest will depend on Edurne's performance, since the song is very hard to manage.

Eurovision 2015 - Vienna is coming (IV)

Russia - Polina Gagarina with "A Million Voices"

Let's now talk about one of the countries the people speak more about in Eurovision, and not for the best reasons. Last year Russia was the first country to bring a winner from the Junior Eurovision Contest to participate in the Eurovision: The Tolmachevy Sisters.
Even with their good voices and good voice performance on stage, the 6th was too high for these contestants, because of the song that was a little outdated. However, the most remarkable on the rusian participation was the booing, especially during the voting. The anti-gay laws and gowing homophobic environment together with the invasion of the ukrainian territory were the reasons for that.
And the victory of a drag queen was even more symbolic last year.
This year Russia brings again an young voice (not so young as the twins!): the 28 years old Polina Gagarina with a powerful ballad called "A Million Voices". For me this is in line with their 2013's proposal: a song that appeals to peace and harmony. Of course many voices started immediatly arguing, saying that is a sign of hypocrisy from a country that is reducing the freedom, especially against the LGBT community, Also this year, even before the begining of the contest, some people in Russia protested against the Polina's words, when she supported the Conchita's victory.
Performing in semifinal 1 and being Russia, it would always be very easy to advance to the grand final. This year, they not only will qualify but they also deserve it. Let's hope that Polina will be able to put on stage all the emotions essential for this powerful ballad.
The booing will be inevitable: especially because Eurovision is one of the biggest LGBT events in the world.


Israel -  Nadav Guedj with "Golden Boy"

Let's talk about a country with one of the most particular and curious paths in the Eurovision Song Contest. Israel was the first country from the euro-Asia region to take part in the Eurovision Song Contest (since 1973) bringing many times over the years, songs with a singular and unique style. The victory of Dana International in 1998 is still one of the most famous victories not only, but also for being the first and only (so far) transexual to win the contest.
Unfortunately in the last years Israel hadn't been lucky, failing the qualification since 2011 (the year when Dana's returned). 2013 and especially 2014 were years in which the voting was very unfair with Israel. Some people have been putting Israel in  the countries that may withdarw from the contest due to the unfair results. However, not only Israel resists, but also they made a big style change from last year. This year's song is fresh, funny and with traditional and ethnic elements, that make it even more attractive. In a year full of ballads, many of them a little boring, Israel made a great decision by sending a song very different from the others in style. It has a curious strange beginning, but the people can easily understand the message. This song will easily remain on people's mind when the time to vote will arrive. Nadav Geudj was selected through the reality singing competition HaKokhav HaBa and the song was selected internally.
It's a good proposal and it seems that Nadav will perform it well. The only problem will be the capacity to conciliate a ritmic song with a good vocal. Israel will be in the called most difficult semifinal. and among the countries that in the past gave more points to Israel, only The Netherlands and Portugal will vote in the same semifinal.

Eurovision 2015: Vienna is coming (III)

Here are my comments about two more countries

Slovenia and Maraaya

For me the Slovenian participation in the ESC is one of the most peculiar among the Balkan Countries. Unfortunately not for the best reasons because several times Slovenia should be in the Grand Final and that didn't happen.Surprinsingly Slovenia qualified last year, even without many of its neighbors in the contest. 

This year the scenario is a little different. One of out neighbors returned (Serbia) but the most important is the quality of the music: since the victory of the duo "Maraaya", the slovenian song is placed between the favourites not only to advance to the grand final but also to win this competition. However, even with the recent changes inm the voting system that are reducing the political and neighborhood effects, I don't think that Slovenia will win this year. The style of the duo is very interesting and the songer has a great voice live. This song was tottaly differente from the runner-up, the group Rudi Bučar en Figoni with the song "Šaltinka". It's a very funny and energic song but, coming from Slovenia it was a certain way to rest in the semi-final.

But it's interesting to see the variety of the songs this country has sent to the contest, or at least has on its semifinal. Slovenia will have at its semifinal Montenegro and Ireland, that are among the countries that usually give more points to this country. 

The qualification is more than certain, and I sincerely hope will win in a better place than last year and 2011.

Czech Republic and Marta Jandová and Václav Noid Bárta

I need to start standing that, so far and for the first time, Czech Republic is really caring about its participation in the Eurovision Song Contest.

Now let's talk about the lest lucky country in the Eurovision. It had participated only three times and, not only failed to reach the final all the times, but also place last two of these times, and the other was the penultimate. Even being in the center of Europe, surrounded by countries, the neighborhood effect doesn't mean anything to Czech Republic.

After the withdraw in 2010 due to poor audiences and results and the absence since then, no one was expecting the return of this country to this year's edition. However, in 19th of November 2014, the czech broadcaster, ČT, revealed its intention to participate and the internal selection as the selection  process.

This year ČT decided to choose two singers with a consistent career in the country: it's obvious that Marta Jandová and Václav Noid Bárta are not beginenrs and inexperienced in the music field. 

Alone their voices are great and the same was expected when they would be put together. However, the result was not so stunning as many people were expecting. The ballad is interesting and, even being in a year full of ballads, is not among the worst. But after listenning the song I feel that something is still missing like if they were really close but didn't achieve it!

Even bring the most dificult semi-final and not receiving any political voting, the voice quality of the singers and a decent performance on stage can make to Czech Republic the same that was made with Montenegro and San Marino last year: achieve the final for the first time. But if the qualification can be a reality, a good place (maybe TOP 15 at least) is not so possible.

Armenian Genocide: 100 years of conflit in the Caucasian Region

Today (24th of January 2015) we celebrate a century from what is called for many as the first genocide of the 20th century. And it happened in a very turbulent region of the world, very close to the european continent. What happened there was a result of what was happening for centuries and was one reason for many of the conflits that still exist in this area.
But let's go back to 1915 to understand better what occurred there.
The caucasian region map was quite different from the present. In the beggining of the 20th century Armenia was between 3 big nations: Persia, the Russian Empire and the Ottoman Empire. Armenia is one of the oldest nations in the world but its boards were not defined in the same shape like today.
Being in a territory where many conflits occurred among the centuries and being placed between the East and the West, many cultures, religions and beliefs had been spread in this areas. And also with all the invasions and occupations, the diaspora was a natural consequence of this situation.

It was estimated that 2 million of armenians were living in the Ottoman Empire and after the massacre and deportation, 1.5 million died. In 1915 the Ottoman Empire was participating in the World War I together with the German and Austro-Hungarian Empires. At this time, the ottoman religious authorities declared a 'holy war' - jihad - to all the christians, except their enemies: among the enemies were of course the armenias. Many of the military authorites started to accuse the armenians of betrayal, arguing that they were helping the russians. On 24th of April the real massacre started: first the intellectual armenians were arrested and brutally executed, and then the rest of the armenians were forced to leave their homes with nothing and sent to walk in the Mesopotamian dessert with no food or water until they died. They were forced to walk under a extremly hot sun and if they stopped to rest they were immediately dead. At the same time, organizations were formed in the Ottoman Empire in order to eradicate any christian presence in the country, by persecution, destruction and dead. The result was obvious: when the massacre ended in 1922 only 388000 armenians were still living in the Ottoman Empire.
But the tensions did not finish then.

The religions differences

As you already figured the religion is a controversial subject in this area. The crhistians and muslims were co-existing in the same territory for centuries, but this living together is far away from being paceful.
The official religion of the Ottoman Empire were the Islam but they allowed the existence of religious minorities. However, their rights were not tottaly respected and their social status was below the statusof the muslims. Eventhought the armenians lived together with the ottomans. But the religions tensions had been always there and it was a question of time until a conflit based on religious questions get started.
After the genocide the religious issue continued to be a problem. With the end of the Ottoman Empire and later the Soviet Union, many countries were formed in this region besides Armenia: Azerbaijan and Georgia too. Like Armenia, the main religion in Georgia is the christianity. But like Turkey, the main religion is the Islam. There have been some religious tensions in this region in the last decades, especially between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Armenia Genocide memorial in Bikfaya

Conflits between Armenia and Azerbaijan

The problem is far away from being solved. The main issue is the authority in the Nagorno-Karabakh republic, a non-recognized sovereign republic that was part of the soviet republic of azerbaijan when it was integrated in the Soviet Union. After the fall of the comunism in the region, the authority over this territory is being disputed between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
The religious freedom is legally recognized in all this countries but over the decades many inccidents and discriminations have occurred.

The lack of civil rights

Besides the religious rights, many other problems related to the civil rights persist in this region, especcially the LGBT ones. The same-sexual activity is recognized in all these countries. But only of them had signed the UN declaration and in none of them the sam-sex relationships or marriages are legally recognized. Not also the adoption. The same for the absense of anti descrimination laws, that only exist in Georgia.
There are also some improvements that need to be done in gender equality between men and women in the domestic and labor worlds.

The Eurasia is a place of tensions and conflits which are far away from being solved. Unfortunately many situations like the armenian massacre could happen again.

Eurovision 2014: what happened in one year after Conchita's victory?

Whitin excatly one month will start the Eurovision 2015 with the first semi-final. Of course the dimension of this contest goes beyond the week of the competition. Since October unitl March are released the songs for the next edition and of course after the end of the contest, people and the media continue to talk about the recent edition. The dimension of the talks and the media's cover depend a lot of the controversies of that edition. And last year was one of the years with more controversy in the History of Eurovision. And the big part of that controversy was caused by just one person: CONCHITA WURST.

In this article I will talk about some of the reactions about Wurst's victory and some of her biggest moments.

The victory: support from the West and hate/indifference from the East

Last year's contest was another contest in which the people didn't have a big consensus about the winning song, unlike some past editions like 2013 or 2012. Austria was one of the favourites but, some bad comments and reactions about that character made the chances for Conchita's victory many difficult. But the truth was that, surprising for some and expected for others, Conchita did win the contest with the 4th biggest points awarded in the grand final. But even with only 4 countries not voting for Austria, Europe last year was tottaly divided into 2 parts. Despite the 12 points from Israel, the other 12 countries that gave the maximum points to Austria were all from the West (Greece, Italy, Slovenia, Switzerland, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, The Netherlands, United Kingdom, Ireland, Finland and Sweden). Conchita was clearly the winner in the West but not so clear in the East. Even being in the TOP3 points from Lithuania, Ukraine, Romania and Georgia, the fact is that 3 of the countries that didn't give a single point for Austria were from the East too (Poland, Belarus and Armenia). And of course I need to mention all the polemic and the boycott threats to participation in the contest from Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. Many voices, even from politicians and ministers especially from Russia accused Conchita for giving a bad example for the kids and to violate the good values of tradition, And the comments became even worst, saying that Conchita should die and burn in hell.

The truth after all was that the big part of Europe supported Conchita and her song.

Of course the controversy was intensified after the show especially between Conchita and Russia. But of course the problems were not only between Russia and Conchita.

Just a few days after Conchita's victory  Angel Dzhambazki, an european congressman from Bulgariam said that Conchita is a genetically modified organism. That sentence is very hard to understand since Conchita only put implants on brest and long hair: according to her press conference after the grand final, Conchita is still a man.

The controversy with the Christian Religions

Of course the Conchita's caracther was also a controversy issue for the christian religions.

And in that subject, we saw two opposite reactions.

First, the negative and absurd comments from the orthodox Patriarch of Serbia that blamed the gays and the Conchita's victory for the storms that happened in the Sava River and caused the death of dozens of persons in the Balcan region. It's very strange to see that a Austrian singer that won in Denmark was responsible for storms that happened... in Serbia. Even more strange is the fact that the pedophile priests or even the gay ones are not responsible for nothing. 

One the other side, we received an amazing positive reaction from the Arcebishop Schonborn from Vienna who said that "In the garden fo the Lord there's space for everyboy", which is clearly and anti-hate message for Conchita. This surprising reaction received a positive feedback and support not only inside the catholic church but also outside it.

Presence in important places 

After Conchita's victory, she performed in many places, including of course the gay parades and other gay-friendly events in many cities. But I would like to highlight the presence and concert in the European Parliment, a way to show that in the European Union there's shouldn't be place for hat and homophobia Unfortunately, in some of its members the hate still persists. I would love to see the  Angel Dzhambazki's reaction in front of Conchita Wurst.

In all the editions we face lots of controversy about many subjects. But one of the most controversial was last year's edition. But despite all the bad reactions and comments the truth is that Conchita is one of the most famous winners from recent years and, brought attentions to the Eurovision from people that usually don't pay attention to that contest.

What about this year? We have already some controversies but they will not be so big like last year!

Eurovision 2015: Vienna is comming (II)

Here are my cooments: this time I will do like before - comment two countries in each message.

THE NETHERLANDS - Trijntje Oosterhuis with "The Walk Alone"


In 2013 The Netherlands surprised us with the artist and the song they had chosen to represent their country in Malmo. And for the first time since there are semi-finals, The Netherlands took part in the Grand Final, finishing in the TOP10 (9th place), something that never happened before since 1999. But the surprises from this country that was "lost" in the competition with very bad results between 2005 and 2012 didn't stop here. Last year, with another internal selection by the dutch broadcast (AVROTROS) The Netherlands reached the final again finishing in 2nd place and winning its semifinal, achieving the best result for the country since 1975.
With this wave of good luck the AVROTROS used the same method to select its representative for this year contest. The artist chosen is Trijntje Oosterhuis a very famous dutch singer with a solid career and a great voice. The Netherlands was one of the first countries to present its artist and song. After the good reaction by the selection of Trijntje, there were many expectations around the song. One month after the annoucment of the artist the broadcaster presented the song, already considered by the artist an uptempo song.
This year The Netherlands tries to achieve the final and a place in the podium with a style a little different from the previous two years. However, considering the big number of ballads present this year and the quality of Trijntje's voice the qualification is almost sure. The song doesn't bring anything new in terms of musical quality and it will be very hard to amaze the audience with an amazing performance but the jury will definitely support the dutch song and with the help of Belgium and France - the countries that usually give more points to The Netherlands - voting in this semi-final we will see this country in the Final.


FINLAND - Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät with "Aina mun pitää"

I don't know exactly how to start. If we make some research on the internet (foruns, youtube, social networks) it's practically impossible to see somebody making good comments about this song. It wasn't the favourite of antbody: in fact, it's almost always in the last place. But the true is this - They win the 'Uuden Musiikin Kilpailu 2015'.

Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät is a finish punk-rock song created in 2009 consisting on adults with developmental disabilities. The participation in the finish documentary "The Punk syndrome" and the concert with Mr. Lordi made this band very famous in Finland.
But despite that, the victory of this band was very unexpected. Like always, the finish festival is very different in style of what its neighbours present and rarely has the quality to win or even finish in a good place in the Grand Final. This year wasn't different. Howerver there were a few songs with the capacity to bring a good result to Finland, including the 2nd ranked, "Satin Circus" with the song "Crossroads", which was the favourite of the jury and many people on the social networks (including me).
Surprisingly the victory was to Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät. Honestly I can't find anything good on the song, even because it has only 1:30 minutes (something possible in the Eurovision according to the rules). It's impossible for me to understand the quality's voice of the singer and even the melody.
But if it's true that the people can be mean about the song, it'a not also true that they can be mean about the artists. Calling them bad names just because they have mental disabilities is being rude and prejudiced.
Maybe the people will vote on this song for pitty, but one thing is voting for pitty in the babushkas in 2012 for example, with a song that we could easily listen without having a headache and another thing is this music. And unfortunately from the countries that give more points to Finland only Denmark will vote in that semi-final.
I can predict a very bad result for Finland this year.

The singular growth process of India (I)

Generally, the economic growth process is a sequence that starts with the loss of importance of the agricultural sector (either the percentage of GDP or in percentage of the workforce employed) and an increase of the importance of industry first, and services next.

As the economic growth nears maturity, the dominant sector is the services, followed generally by the industry and then by agriculture.
However, the economic growth process of India was deviated from this common process, going straight from agriculture to the leadership of the service sector.
The lack of industrial development was due in very of the presence of a stifling regulation, especially in the legislation about the work and the policies about the small size industries.
Another unusual aspect is the permanence of the same distribution of the employed population among the diverse sectors: the majority of the employed population still remain in the agriculture.

The IT related activities still represent a small parcel of the service sector. The sub-sectors that had increase considerably due to economic liberalization were the business services, comunications and banks.
However, due to high qualifications, and technic capacity of human resources in IT field, we expect that this will the sub-sector with the higher increase in the next years.
And could India have a sustained economic growth in the future, without the industrial sector? The most likely scenario is no.
The manufactured production will be a way to India have a sustentable growth, and will contribute to the poverty reduction.
One of the fundamental variables to the manufactury development will be the increase in qualifications and skills of the rural population.
A more qualificated population together with a liberalization of agriculture, would allow an exit of workforce to the more procutive areas.
This process will fortify the pruduction level of the rural areas and generate a bigger work suplly to the manufactury activity.
Through this process, India will have a economic path similar to its asiatic neighbors, and could also have a biggest urbanization of its territory.

In the last 50 years, India has change its isolation policy (namely, domestic view policy): the increasly economic liberalization and gradual opening to the world economy, boosted the economic growth rate and lifted millions out of poverty.
If these reforms are maintained and move forward at the same rytm and intensity in the next 10-15 years, then the economy could increase in an average of 6%/year.
However, if the reforms will be deeper , the GDP coul increase an average of 7-8% per year in the same period.
In 2020 India would be the economy with thw higher annual economic growth, and the 3rd biggest economy in the world (behind China and USA). Its GDP per capita also could duplicate in the same period of time.
This projection will only be possible if the demographic conditions remain the same. And these conditions will be discussed in the next message.

Eurovision 2015: Vienna is comming (I)

Yes I'm back with my comments about the Eurovision's entries. This year we are going to Vienna, and I'll start to comment the choice from my own country.

PORTUGAL AND LEONOR ANDRADE

Like in some many years in the past, the portuguese public broadcast (RTP) held the 'Festival da Canção' in March to select its representative for the Eurovision Song Contest. In the last years we have watched some changes in the selection process. The same happened this year, with the (re)introduction of two semifinals, one final and a super-final. In the semifinals and in the final three songs were chosen - two by the public and the other but the composers - to advance for the next round.
Despite the differences the Fetsival received the same criticisms by some people about the repetition of the same music style and the weakness of the songs. Also this new method of asking to all the composers to  select a music from the 'competition' to advance to the next round was very criticized. However, the public agreed with almost all the qualifiers from the semi-finals. The same we cannot say about the qualifiers for the super-final with many people expecting to see Yola in this last round. After all, the public with 100% of decision power, chose Leonor Andrade to represent Portugal in Vienna in May.

This year we had the return of one of the symbols of the portuguese participation in the Eurovision: Simone de Oliveira, the portuguese representative in  1965 and 1969. Simone de Oliveira was qualified for the final but missed the qualification for the super-final. As for the other participants, most of them were known from their participation in some portuguese talent shows (like the winner) and/or from previous participations in the Festival, like Filipa Baptista in 2009 (that failed to qualify from the semi-final) and Teresa Radamanto in 2007 (that was in the super-final). Like in the previous years, we could see that there are really good voices in Portugaal. Unfortunately the voices are underused and their potential are not fully availed.

This song has definetly many aspects to be improved and Leonor and her team have a long and hard work to do before May. However, even with better and strongest voices in the final, as Yola and Teresa, it's amazing to see Portugal choosing a different style to represent it in the Eurovision.

This year the semifinal where Portugal was allocated is not very hard, but it will not have the political voting from Spain and France, the two countries that usuallt give more points to Portugal. However, improving the performance a qualification is really possible.

The public intervention in the startegic sectors

New year, new life! And it's time to refresh my blog. I will start this new "season" of messages by starting a set of messages about the challenges for the future of the European Union.

The public intervention of the EU-instituions in the strategic sectors

Despite the fact that the EU have some responsabilities on the strategic sectores of the economy, there is no rules or legislation about how to define and how to intervent in the strategic sectors. There is no legislation that defines in which sectors the State needs to intervent. Usually the public intervention is a result of the historic tradition.
Inside the European Union, there is a belief that in the southern countries, the publci intervention os excessive (which can be supported by the current debt crisis) but it's nothing more than a myth. If we see the weight of the public intervention in the total of the economic's activity, we can see that in the Nordic countries is much higher. However, there is no limitation about how far the State can intervent in the economy: not even in each member.

In the last decades we saw among the majority of the EU-members a decrease in the importance of the State's role in the economy. Why is that happening, even not existing legislation about that? Mainly for three reasons:
- the increase in the intern market's dimension;
- the economic liberalization and globalization, which brought the international competitiveness;
- the privatization of the public business sector (an inspiration of the anglo-saxon model);

The big consequence of the decrease of the public intervention is the redution of the instruments the governments can use to make its intervention.
Currently with the redution of the public companies, we see the States giving benefits to the private companies, under the previous authorization of the European Institutions. So, even taking in account the reality of each member, the EU needs to take part on the intervention due to the importance of the sectores not only for the stability of the respective member, but also for the stability of the EU.
There is also another reason for the public intervention: the public economic interest services (different from the social interest services). These services are the activities that don't have the profit maximization as a goal, but a social purporse instead. So the sustainability is guaranteed by the Government.

From the pratical experience, the European Union defined some sctores that can be considered strategic such as:
- Water supply and distribution;
- Energy (the supply and distribution of energy is giving many problems between countries all over the world, including inside the UE, which gives a special attention to this sector);
- Transportation;
- Telecommunications (not only important because allow people to communicate, but also because the telecommunications sector are essential to the functioning of the economy - the vulnerability of our lives is big now because of the privacy questions);
- Defense industry;

To conclude this first message, the criteria that define the protectionist politics at european level, give more importance to the economistic side, withiout giving the right importance to the social and ambiental impacts of the proteccionism.